Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Top Bright Holding Co., Ltd. (8499.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.59 - $162.06$131.21
Multi-Stage$122.68 - $134.58$128.51
Blended Fair Value$129.86
Current Price$249.00
Upside-47.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.34%5.86%4.012.5110.0310.036.206.206.263.8915.813.12
YoY Growth--60.00%-75.00%0.02%61.74%0.00%-0.90%60.71%-75.38%407.23%37.28%
Dividend Yield--2.61%2.17%7.83%6.39%3.06%6.82%4.31%3.11%8.01%1.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)444.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.1555.7233.43
Cash Retained (M)444.66444.66444.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.15-55.72-33.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)355.50388.94411.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.3641.3641.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.609.409.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.609.409.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.629.439.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$104.59$131.21$162.06
Upside / Downside-57.99%-47.31%-34.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.77456.88468.26479.93491.89504.15519.27
Payout Ratio0.25%18.20%36.15%54.10%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.1183.15169.28259.64354.41453.73480.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)74.9575.6976.43
Year 2 PV (M)137.53140.26143.01
Year 3 PV (M)190.15195.83201.62
Year 4 PV (M)233.96243.31252.95
Year 5 PV (M)269.99283.55297.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,167.314,376.704,594.42
Equity Value (M)5,073.895,315.345,566.09
Shares Outstanding (M)41.3641.3641.36
Fair Value$122.68$128.51$134.58
Upside / Downside-50.73%-48.39%-45.95%

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