Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Saizeriya Co.,Ltd. (7581.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,836.90 - $11,634.31$7,169.50
Multi-Stage$3,718.25 - $4,068.92$3,890.37
Blended Fair Value$5,529.93
Current Price$5,230.00
Upside5.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.80%3.18%25.1618.0718.0718.0517.9718.1118.2618.3418.4218.50
YoY Growth--39.24%0.00%0.11%0.45%-0.78%-0.78%-0.44%-0.44%-0.44%0.55%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.34%0.31%0.64%0.61%1.01%0.71%0.84%0.52%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,164.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,241.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,923.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,232.801,395.50837.30
Cash Retained (M)9,923.009,923.009,923.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,232.80-1,395.50-837.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,690.208,527.509,085.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.3649.3649.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share155.81172.78184.09
LTM Dividend per Share25.1425.1425.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share155.81172.78184.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend180.96197.92209.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate4.80%5.80%6.80%
Fair Value$4,836.90$7,169.50$11,634.31
Upside / Downside-7.52%37.08%122.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,164.0011,811.1212,495.7413,220.0513,986.3414,797.0615,240.97
Payout Ratio11.12%26.89%42.67%58.45%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,241.003,176.355,331.897,726.6510,381.1113,317.3514,097.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate4.80%5.80%6.80%
Year 1 PV (M)2,894.052,921.662,949.28
Year 2 PV (M)4,426.264,511.134,596.81
Year 3 PV (M)5,844.196,013.096,185.22
Year 4 PV (M)7,154.097,431.097,716.06
Year 5 PV (M)8,361.928,768.579,190.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)154,834.60162,364.34170,184.20
Equity Value (M)183,515.11192,009.89200,822.46
Shares Outstanding (M)49.3649.3649.36
Fair Value$3,718.25$3,890.37$4,068.92
Upside / Downside-28.91%-25.61%-22.20%

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