Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alpha Purchase Co., Ltd. (7115.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$899.07 - $1,385.18$1,125.15
Multi-Stage$1,976.49 - $2,177.33$2,074.93
Blended Fair Value$1,600.04
Current Price$2,767.00
Upside-42.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%21.2514.1810.275.475.270.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--49.86%38.05%87.88%3.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.28%0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)974.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)263.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)711.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.99121.8773.12
Cash Retained (M)711.74711.74711.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.99-121.87-73.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)516.74589.87638.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.969.969.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.9059.2564.15
LTM Dividend per Share26.4426.4426.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.9059.2564.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend78.3485.6990.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$899.07$1,125.15$1,385.18
Upside / Downside-67.51%-59.34%-49.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)974.97965.22955.57946.01936.55927.19955.00
Payout Ratio27.00%39.60%52.20%64.80%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)263.23382.22498.80613.01724.89834.47883.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)355.13358.76362.38
Year 2 PV (M)430.61439.44448.37
Year 3 PV (M)491.71506.92522.43
Year 4 PV (M)540.24562.64585.71
Year 5 PV (M)577.84607.93639.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,281.8418,181.7519,118.76
Equity Value (M)19,677.3820,657.4321,676.91
Shares Outstanding (M)9.969.969.96
Fair Value$1,976.49$2,074.93$2,177.33
Upside / Downside-28.57%-25.01%-21.31%

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