Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Thong Guan Industries Berhad (7034.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.63 - $29.65$15.47
Multi-Stage$4.38 - $4.81$4.59
Blended Fair Value$10.03
Current Price$1.17
Upside757.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.72%6.79%0.060.050.060.040.060.040.030.020.040.01
YoY Growth--20.18%-19.73%35.37%-30.18%74.42%28.85%37.10%-49.67%275.26%-63.64%
Dividend Yield--4.89%2.51%2.51%1.84%2.75%2.37%2.17%1.46%1.72%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.087.554.53
Cash Retained (M)50.0450.0450.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.08-7.55-4.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.9642.4945.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.88400.88400.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$6.63$15.47$29.65
Upside / Downside466.59%1,222.48%2,434.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.3863.6567.1070.7374.5778.6180.97
Payout Ratio17.13%31.70%46.28%60.85%75.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3420.1831.0543.0456.2470.7574.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)18.8018.9819.16
Year 2 PV (M)26.9527.4727.99
Year 3 PV (M)34.8135.8236.85
Year 4 PV (M)42.3744.0245.71
Year 5 PV (M)49.6652.0854.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,584.811,662.171,742.51
Equity Value (M)1,757.401,840.531,926.82
Shares Outstanding (M)400.88400.88400.88
Fair Value$4.38$4.59$4.81
Upside / Downside274.69%292.41%310.81%

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