Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kunshan Dongwei Technology Co.,Ltd. (688700.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.91 - $2.71$2.31
Multi-Stage$2.92 - $3.21$3.06
Blended Fair Value$2.68
Current Price$39.25
Upside-93.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS57.04%0.00%0.190.220.150.150.080.020.050.100.000.00
YoY Growth---11.52%46.67%0.00%92.00%283.33%-62.30%-46.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.78%0.29%0.41%0.36%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2510.786.47
Cash Retained (M)56.4456.4456.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.25-10.78-6.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.1945.6649.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)294.36294.36294.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.91$2.31$2.71
Upside / Downside-95.12%-94.12%-93.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.2485.3884.5283.6882.8482.0184.47
Payout Ratio34.56%45.64%56.73%67.82%78.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.8038.9747.9556.7565.3773.8178.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.0735.4335.78
Year 2 PV (M)38.8339.6340.43
Year 3 PV (M)41.3642.6443.94
Year 4 PV (M)42.8744.6546.48
Year 5 PV (M)43.5645.8348.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)658.78693.09728.81
Equity Value (M)860.48901.26943.64
Shares Outstanding (M)294.36294.36294.36
Fair Value$2.92$3.06$3.21
Upside / Downside-92.55%-92.20%-91.83%

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