Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Fuxin Technology Co., Ltd. (688662.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.06 - $4.31$3.68
Multi-Stage$8.64 - $9.53$9.08
Blended Fair Value$6.38
Current Price$48.52
Upside-86.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-34.54%0.00%0.030.280.420.360.340.270.170.150.000.00
YoY Growth---88.64%-33.79%19.08%4.02%29.08%53.03%15.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%1.04%1.26%1.15%0.95%0.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.785.493.29
Cash Retained (M)11.2511.2511.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.78-5.49-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.475.767.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)87.1187.1187.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-5.81%-4.81%-3.81%
Fair Value$3.06$3.68$4.31
Upside / Downside-93.69%-92.42%-91.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.9141.8039.7937.8836.0534.3235.35
Payout Ratio74.38%77.50%80.63%83.75%86.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.6632.4032.0831.7231.3230.8932.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-5.81%-4.81%-3.81%
Year 1 PV (M)30.0730.3930.71
Year 2 PV (M)27.6428.2328.83
Year 3 PV (M)25.3726.1827.02
Year 4 PV (M)23.2524.2525.29
Year 5 PV (M)21.2822.4423.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)625.23659.13694.48
Equity Value (M)752.84790.62829.97
Shares Outstanding (M)87.1187.1187.11
Fair Value$8.64$9.08$9.53
Upside / Downside-82.19%-81.29%-80.36%

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