Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

3onedata Co., Ltd. (688618.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $3.03$2.57
Multi-Stage$3.23 - $3.55$3.39
Blended Fair Value$2.98
Current Price$25.73
Upside-88.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.380.210.190.190.000.000.360.450.000.00
YoY Growth--79.65%12.43%-3.47%4,390.02%0.00%-100.00%-20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.79%0.62%0.39%1.02%0.02%0.00%0.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.104.442.66
Cash Retained (M)27.7227.7227.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.10-4.44-2.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.6323.2925.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.40110.40110.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.13$2.57$3.03
Upside / Downside-91.71%-90.00%-88.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.4935.1334.7834.4334.0933.7534.76
Payout Ratio21.88%35.50%49.13%62.75%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.7612.4717.0921.6126.0430.3732.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.2411.3611.47
Year 2 PV (M)13.8814.1714.46
Year 3 PV (M)15.8216.3116.81
Year 4 PV (M)17.1917.9018.63
Year 5 PV (M)18.0719.0119.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)280.51295.12310.32
Equity Value (M)356.72373.87391.70
Shares Outstanding (M)110.40110.40110.40
Fair Value$3.23$3.39$3.55
Upside / Downside-87.44%-86.84%-86.21%

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