Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dareway Software Co.,Ltd. (688579.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.50 - $2.29$1.87
Multi-Stage$2.06 - $2.26$2.16
Blended Fair Value$2.01
Current Price$11.89
Upside-83.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.25%12.36%0.080.050.100.100.000.080.070.070.030.01
YoY Growth--60.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%19.04%4.00%139.59%316.11%-73.68%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.50%0.68%1.05%0.00%0.27%0.23%0.22%0.09%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.908.064.84
Cash Retained (M)38.4838.4838.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.90-8.06-4.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.5830.4233.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.37400.37400.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate0.57%1.57%2.57%
Fair Value$1.50$1.87$2.29
Upside / Downside-87.42%-84.29%-80.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.4865.4966.5267.5668.6269.7071.79
Payout Ratio40.32%50.26%60.19%70.13%80.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.0032.9240.0447.3854.9462.7366.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate0.57%1.57%2.57%
Year 1 PV (M)29.8430.1330.43
Year 2 PV (M)32.9033.5634.22
Year 3 PV (M)35.2936.3537.44
Year 4 PV (M)37.1038.5940.14
Year 5 PV (M)38.3940.3442.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)652.13685.20719.61
Equity Value (M)825.64864.18904.19
Shares Outstanding (M)400.37400.37400.37
Fair Value$2.06$2.16$2.26
Upside / Downside-82.66%-81.85%-81.01%

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