Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Microelectronics Limited (688396.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.36 - $10.15$8.08
Multi-Stage$7.03 - $7.70$7.36
Blended Fair Value$7.72
Current Price$55.55
Upside-86.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162010
DPS4.30%0.00%0.140.250.190.090.060.120.100.000.010.00
YoY Growth---41.47%28.99%107.22%55.09%-49.14%21.15%2,389.24%-68.47%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.62%0.32%0.17%0.11%0.36%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)788.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)703.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.7398.5859.15
Cash Retained (M)703.64703.64703.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.73-98.58-59.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)545.91605.06644.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,326.041,326.041,326.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$6.36$8.08$10.15
Upside / Downside-88.55%-85.46%-81.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)788.66814.65841.50869.24897.89927.48955.30
Payout Ratio10.78%26.62%42.47%58.31%74.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.02216.89357.37506.87665.84834.73883.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)195.35197.26199.17
Year 2 PV (M)289.92295.61301.36
Year 3 PV (M)370.37381.33392.52
Year 4 PV (M)438.21455.60473.50
Year 5 PV (M)494.81519.47545.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,536.507,912.148,302.61
Equity Value (M)9,325.169,761.4210,214.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,326.041,326.041,326.04
Fair Value$7.03$7.36$7.70
Upside / Downside-87.34%-86.75%-86.13%

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