Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunshine Guojian Pharmaceutical (Shanghai) Co., Ltd (688336.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.59 - $13.66$11.59
Multi-Stage$13.92 - $15.30$14.60
Blended Fair Value$13.09
Current Price$56.82
Upside-76.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-40.74%0.00%0.090.000.000.000.001.170.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3,460.92%20.53%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%2.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)870.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)793.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.08108.8065.28
Cash Retained (M)793.38793.38793.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.08-108.80-65.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)619.30684.58728.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)611.20611.20611.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-1.73%-0.73%0.27%
Fair Value$9.59$11.59$13.66
Upside / Downside-83.12%-79.60%-75.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)870.39864.07857.79851.55845.36839.22864.40
Payout Ratio8.85%25.08%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.01216.70354.34489.98623.62755.30799.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-1.73%-0.73%0.27%
Year 1 PV (M)195.11197.09199.08
Year 2 PV (M)287.26293.13299.07
Year 3 PV (M)357.64368.67379.92
Year 4 PV (M)409.84426.78444.24
Year 5 PV (M)446.92470.13494.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,811.277,164.947,533.15
Equity Value (M)8,508.038,920.749,349.75
Shares Outstanding (M)611.20611.20611.20
Fair Value$13.92$14.60$15.30
Upside / Downside-75.50%-74.31%-73.08%

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