Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Novogene Co., Ltd. (688315.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.37 - $14.83$10.26
Multi-Stage$6.10 - $6.67$6.38
Blended Fair Value$8.32
Current Price$15.83
Upside-47.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.81%0.00%0.050.050.060.010.020.010.000.000.010.00
YoY Growth---0.36%-19.79%878.68%-73.24%298.13%317.79%-69.96%-44.89%156.34%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.32%0.20%0.02%0.08%0.02%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.0421.9013.14
Cash Retained (M)154.96154.96154.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.04-21.90-13.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.92133.06141.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)412.57412.57412.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate4.59%5.59%6.59%
Fair Value$7.37$10.26$14.83
Upside / Downside-53.47%-35.18%-6.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.21185.00195.33206.24217.76229.93236.82
Payout Ratio11.56%27.25%42.94%58.62%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.2550.4183.87120.91161.82206.93219.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate4.59%5.59%6.59%
Year 1 PV (M)45.6446.0746.51
Year 2 PV (M)68.7470.0671.39
Year 3 PV (M)89.7292.3294.97
Year 4 PV (M)108.72112.93117.27
Year 5 PV (M)125.86132.00138.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,078.832,180.142,285.35
Equity Value (M)2,517.512,633.522,753.86
Shares Outstanding (M)412.57412.57412.57
Fair Value$6.10$6.38$6.67
Upside / Downside-61.45%-59.68%-57.83%

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