Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Hopechart IoT Technology Co.,Ltd (688288.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.83 - $6.98$5.87
Multi-Stage$7.71 - $8.49$8.09
Blended Fair Value$6.98
Current Price$29.75
Upside-76.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-26.59%0.00%0.050.010.000.360.300.250.300.000.100.00
YoY Growth--725.08%0.00%-100.00%20.74%21.79%-16.69%17,242.15%-98.25%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.04%0.00%1.50%0.82%0.81%0.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.618.515.11
Cash Retained (M)65.4065.4065.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.61-8.51-5.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.7956.8960.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.84101.84101.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.560.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.560.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.83$5.87$6.98
Upside / Downside-83.78%-80.26%-76.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.0767.3966.7166.0565.3864.7366.67
Payout Ratio3.92%21.13%38.35%55.57%72.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.6714.2425.5836.7047.5958.2661.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9513.0813.22
Year 2 PV (M)21.1621.5922.03
Year 3 PV (M)27.6028.4529.32
Year 4 PV (M)32.5433.8935.28
Year 5 PV (M)36.2338.1140.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)654.81688.91724.41
Equity Value (M)785.29824.04864.34
Shares Outstanding (M)101.84101.84101.84
Fair Value$7.71$8.09$8.49
Upside / Downside-74.08%-72.80%-71.47%

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