Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

MEMSensing Microsystems Co., Ltd. (688286.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.69 - $19.00$12.47
Multi-Stage$6.16 - $6.74$6.45
Blended Fair Value$9.46
Current Price$70.69
Upside-86.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS-26.63%46.49%0.020.000.070.230.000.090.240.000.000.00
YoY Growth--384.87%-94.34%-68.86%0.00%-100.00%-61.94%10,572.42%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.01%0.11%0.38%0.00%0.04%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.023.141.88
Cash Retained (M)24.0224.0224.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.02-3.14-1.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.9920.8822.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.2456.2456.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.69$12.47$19.00
Upside / Downside-87.71%-82.36%-73.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.1126.7428.4830.3332.3134.4135.44
Payout Ratio4.37%21.49%38.62%55.75%72.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.105.7511.0016.9123.5430.9732.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5.185.235.28
Year 2 PV (M)8.959.129.29
Year 3 PV (M)12.4112.7613.12
Year 4 PV (M)15.5816.1816.79
Year 5 PV (M)18.4819.3720.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)286.10299.92314.27
Equity Value (M)346.69362.58379.05
Shares Outstanding (M)56.2456.2456.24
Fair Value$6.16$6.45$6.74
Upside / Downside-91.28%-90.88%-90.47%

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