Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Railway High-speed Electrification Equipment Corporation Limited (688285.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.96 - $27.12$25.39
Multi-Stage$15.70 - $17.44$16.55
Blended Fair Value$20.97
Current Price$8.75
Upside139.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.71%0.00%0.040.080.090.040.370.080.040.450.060.00
YoY Growth---45.18%-19.15%147.51%-89.65%346.52%109.77%-91.33%665.58%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%1.02%1.06%0.43%3.45%0.77%0.37%4.25%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.587.244.34
Cash Retained (M)45.9245.9245.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.58-7.24-4.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.3338.6841.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)376.25376.25376.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate-7.43%-7.43%-7.43%
Growth Rate-6.76%-5.76%-4.76%
Fair Value$22.96$25.39$27.12
Upside / Downside162.45%190.14%209.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.9254.5851.4448.4745.6843.0544.34
Payout Ratio20.73%34.58%48.44%62.29%76.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.0018.8824.9130.1934.7838.7441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.43%-7.43%-7.43%
Growth Rate-6.76%-5.76%-4.76%
Year 1 PV (M)20.1720.3920.61
Year 2 PV (M)28.4629.0829.70
Year 3 PV (M)36.8738.0739.29
Year 4 PV (M)45.4047.3849.42
Year 5 PV (M)54.0557.0160.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,721.366,034.836,361.90
Equity Value (M)5,906.316,226.756,561.01
Shares Outstanding (M)376.25376.25376.25
Fair Value$15.70$16.55$17.44
Upside / Downside79.40%89.14%99.29%

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