Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai BOCHU Electronic Technology Corporation Limited. (688188.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$347.05 - $849.71$796.30
Multi-Stage$125.33 - $137.08$131.10
Blended Fair Value$463.70
Current Price$153.78
Upside201.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS66.76%0.00%2.080.670.770.520.300.160.230.120.000.00
YoY Growth--212.06%-14.08%49.15%74.32%85.00%-29.83%90.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%0.48%0.83%0.47%0.28%0.36%0.26%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,061.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)592.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)468.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.26132.6679.60
Cash Retained (M)468.82468.82468.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.26-132.66-79.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)256.56336.16389.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.39248.39248.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.351.57
LTM Dividend per Share2.392.392.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.351.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.423.743.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$347.05$796.30$849.71
Upside / Downside125.68%417.82%452.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,061.281,130.261,203.731,281.971,365.301,454.041,497.67
Payout Ratio55.83%62.66%69.50%76.33%83.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)592.46708.22836.53978.531,135.451,308.641,385.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)658.51664.76671.00
Year 2 PV (M)723.22737.00750.90
Year 3 PV (M)786.60809.18832.19
Year 4 PV (M)848.68881.32914.89
Year 5 PV (M)909.47953.40999.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,204.2928,518.2729,882.54
Equity Value (M)31,130.7932,563.9334,050.53
Shares Outstanding (M)248.39248.39248.39
Fair Value$125.33$131.10$137.08
Upside / Downside-18.50%-14.75%-10.86%

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