Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Roborock Technology Co., Ltd. (688169.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,174.56 - $1,383.83$1,296.85
Multi-Stage$823.86 - $904.30$863.32
Blended Fair Value$1,080.09
Current Price$209.78
Upside414.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS121.24%0.00%2.781.080.630.620.600.050.170.000.000.00
YoY Growth--156.58%70.90%2.40%2.75%1,048.80%-69.77%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%0.63%0.48%0.43%0.20%0.06%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,542.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)196.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,345.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.43192.77115.66
Cash Retained (M)1,345.381,345.381,345.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.43-192.77-115.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,036.951,152.611,229.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.62221.62221.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.685.205.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.685.205.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.576.096.44
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,174.56$1,296.85$1,383.83
Upside / Downside459.90%518.19%559.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,542.131,642.361,749.121,862.811,983.892,112.852,176.23
Payout Ratio12.76%28.21%43.65%59.10%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)196.75463.25763.581,100.981,479.021,901.562,013.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.60%1.60%1.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)451.68455.96460.24
Year 2 PV (M)725.89739.72753.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,020.491,049.791,079.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,336.641,388.051,440.92
Year 5 PV (M)1,675.561,756.491,840.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)177,376.74185,944.10194,839.36
Equity Value (M)182,587.01191,334.10200,414.35
Shares Outstanding (M)221.62221.62221.62
Fair Value$823.86$863.32$904.30
Upside / Downside292.72%311.54%331.07%

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