Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kexing Biopharm Co., Ltd. (688136.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.33 - $8.01$6.60
Multi-Stage$10.54 - $11.60$11.06
Blended Fair Value$8.83
Current Price$39.02
Upside-77.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS44.13%0.00%0.220.230.100.080.050.040.050.240.000.00
YoY Growth---3.92%128.55%25.00%46.27%54.93%-27.63%-79.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.37%0.46%0.26%0.17%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1115.709.42
Cash Retained (M)78.9878.9878.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.11-15.70-9.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.8763.2969.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.05199.05199.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.33$6.60$8.01
Upside / Downside-86.35%-83.09%-79.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.57124.31123.07121.84120.62119.41122.99
Payout Ratio37.10%47.68%58.26%68.84%79.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.5859.2771.7083.8795.79107.47113.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)54.6955.2455.80
Year 2 PV (M)61.0462.2963.56
Year 3 PV (M)65.8867.9270.00
Year 4 PV (M)69.4372.3175.28
Year 5 PV (M)71.8775.6279.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,775.971,868.451,964.74
Equity Value (M)2,098.882,201.832,308.89
Shares Outstanding (M)199.05199.05199.05
Fair Value$10.54$11.06$11.60
Upside / Downside-72.98%-71.65%-70.27%

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