Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pinming Technology Co., Ltd. (688109.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.91 - $6.96$5.92
Multi-Stage$7.63 - $8.36$7.98
Blended Fair Value$6.95
Current Price$100.60
Upside-93.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.50%0.00%0.260.000.370.480.220.280.170.000.220.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-23.07%112.25%-19.67%69.44%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.00%1.43%1.70%0.42%0.45%0.27%0.00%0.36%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.358.345.00
Cash Retained (M)37.2637.2637.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.35-8.34-5.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.9228.9232.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.8588.8588.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.91$5.92$6.96
Upside / Downside-95.12%-94.11%-93.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.7366.0665.4064.7564.1063.4665.36
Payout Ratio44.16%53.33%62.49%71.66%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.4635.2340.8746.4051.8157.1160.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.7132.0332.35
Year 2 PV (M)33.1133.7934.47
Year 3 PV (M)33.8334.8735.94
Year 4 PV (M)34.0035.4136.86
Year 5 PV (M)33.7335.4937.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)511.18537.80565.51
Equity Value (M)677.55709.38742.45
Shares Outstanding (M)88.8588.8588.85
Fair Value$7.63$7.98$8.36
Upside / Downside-92.42%-92.06%-91.69%

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