Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kunshan GuoLi Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (688103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.12 - $128.01$119.96
Multi-Stage$17.81 - $19.49$18.63
Blended Fair Value$69.30
Current Price$73.49
Upside-5.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.12%17.66%0.250.270.320.010.140.030.040.030.150.05
YoY Growth---10.24%-13.49%6,086.07%-96.21%318.49%-23.36%40.66%-80.65%201.88%5.91%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.70%0.53%0.01%0.18%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.307.694.61
Cash Retained (M)43.6843.6843.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.30-7.69-4.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.3936.0039.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.12$119.96$128.01
Upside / Downside-37.24%63.23%74.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.4965.4969.7574.2879.1184.2586.78
Payout Ratio28.96%41.17%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.8126.9637.2348.7161.5475.8280.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.0325.2725.51
Year 2 PV (M)32.1032.7133.33
Year 3 PV (M)39.0140.1341.27
Year 4 PV (M)45.7647.5249.33
Year 5 PV (M)52.3554.8857.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,506.961,579.751,655.32
Equity Value (M)1,701.221,780.261,862.26
Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
Fair Value$17.81$18.63$19.49
Upside / Downside-75.77%-74.64%-73.48%

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