Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Cathay Biotech Inc. (688065.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.08 - $10.39$8.67
Multi-Stage$10.42 - $11.46$10.93
Blended Fair Value$9.80
Current Price$52.04
Upside-81.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.02%0.00%0.220.210.320.520.010.190.270.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.24%-33.41%-39.09%8,672.41%-96.81%-32.15%188,135.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.48%0.51%0.67%0.01%0.17%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)594.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)567.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.8974.3144.58
Cash Retained (M)567.95567.95567.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.89-74.31-44.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)449.05493.64523.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)653.86653.86653.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate-1.01%-0.01%0.99%
Fair Value$7.08$8.67$10.39
Upside / Downside-86.40%-83.33%-80.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)594.46594.39594.32594.24594.17594.10611.92
Payout Ratio4.46%21.57%38.68%55.78%72.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.51128.20229.86331.49433.10534.69566.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate-1.01%-0.01%0.99%
Year 1 PV (M)116.27117.44118.62
Year 2 PV (M)189.07192.91196.78
Year 3 PV (M)247.29254.86262.59
Year 4 PV (M)293.03305.05317.44
Year 5 PV (M)328.09345.00362.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,640.115,930.816,233.38
Equity Value (M)6,813.857,146.077,491.41
Shares Outstanding (M)653.86653.86653.86
Fair Value$10.42$10.93$11.46
Upside / Downside-79.98%-79.00%-77.98%

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