Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nidec Corporation (6594.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,635.94 - $30,947.16$29,002.02
Multi-Stage$4,472.29 - $4,896.84$4,680.66
Blended Fair Value$16,841.34
Current Price$2,633.50
Upside539.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.27%11.23%40.0835.0735.2430.6330.6428.2225.7323.2520.6920.65
YoY Growth--14.27%-0.49%15.07%-0.04%8.57%9.69%10.66%12.40%0.16%49.38%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.99%0.90%0.73%0.48%0.78%0.68%0.56%0.72%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178,495.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,911.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)132,584.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35,699.0022,311.8813,387.13
Cash Retained (M)132,584.00132,584.00132,584.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-35,699.00-22,311.88-13,387.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)96,885.00110,272.13119,196.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,147.061,147.061,147.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share84.4696.13103.92
LTM Dividend per Share40.0240.0240.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share84.4696.13103.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend124.49136.16143.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,635.94$29,002.02$30,947.16
Upside / Downside379.82%1,001.27%1,075.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178,495.00190,097.18202,453.49215,612.97229,627.81244,553.62251,890.23
Payout Ratio25.72%38.58%51.43%64.29%77.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,911.0073,333.66104,127.30138,614.27177,144.62220,098.26232,998.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68,186.1368,832.4569,478.76
Year 2 PV (M)90,022.2791,736.9493,467.79
Year 3 PV (M)111,425.85114,624.49117,883.76
Year 4 PV (M)132,403.25137,495.11142,732.43
Year 5 PV (M)152,960.74160,348.80168,019.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,574,976.454,795,949.525,025,379.75
Equity Value (M)5,129,974.705,368,987.315,616,962.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,147.061,147.061,147.06
Fair Value$4,472.29$4,680.66$4,896.84
Upside / Downside69.82%77.74%85.94%

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