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Definitive Analysis

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Maezawa Kyuso Industries Co.,Ltd. (6485.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,035.46 - $15,187.01$6,787.16
Multi-Stage$3,528.11 - $3,868.90$3,695.32
Blended Fair Value$5,241.24
Current Price$1,490.00
Upside251.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.56%7.99%43.8637.7737.4824.2923.2820.3822.3622.7024.3420.33
YoY Growth--16.11%0.77%54.27%4.36%14.22%-8.86%-1.49%-6.75%19.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.58%2.80%3.36%2.73%2.26%2.03%2.27%2.33%3.18%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,929.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)466.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,463.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)585.80366.13219.68
Cash Retained (M)2,463.002,463.002,463.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-585.80-366.13-219.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,877.202,096.882,243.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7020.7020.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share90.67101.28108.35
LTM Dividend per Share22.5122.5122.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share90.67101.28108.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend113.18123.79130.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Fair Value$4,035.46$6,787.16$15,187.01
Upside / Downside170.84%355.51%919.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,929.003,070.363,218.533,373.863,536.693,707.373,818.59
Payout Ratio15.91%30.73%45.55%60.36%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)466.00943.461,465.912,036.602,658.953,336.633,532.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.83%4.83%5.83%
Year 1 PV (M)875.47883.90892.33
Year 2 PV (M)1,262.251,286.681,311.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,627.271,674.741,723.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,971.442,048.502,127.79
Year 5 PV (M)2,295.622,408.322,525.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,013.4568,205.2371,521.15
Equity Value (M)73,045.5076,507.3780,101.15
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7020.7020.70
Fair Value$3,528.11$3,695.32$3,868.90
Upside / Downside136.79%148.01%159.66%

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