Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JANOME Corporation (6445.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$473.87 - $745.76$598.48
Multi-Stage$1,019.47 - $1,122.78$1,070.11
Blended Fair Value$834.29
Current Price$1,120.00
Upside-25.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.73%0.00%40.8026.7226.7742.5716.0215.9110.5910.530.000.00
YoY Growth--52.70%-0.21%-37.11%165.74%0.70%50.26%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.64%3.86%4.35%5.95%2.12%3.50%2.32%1.49%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)639.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.40108.3865.03
Cash Retained (M)639.00639.00639.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.40-108.38-65.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.60530.63573.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.0418.0418.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.8129.4131.82
LTM Dividend per Share12.6412.6412.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.8129.4131.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.4542.0544.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Fair Value$473.87$598.48$745.76
Upside / Downside-57.69%-46.56%-33.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)867.00862.29857.61852.95848.32843.71869.02
Payout Ratio26.30%39.04%51.78%64.52%77.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.00336.62444.06550.32655.41759.34803.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)313.06316.24319.42
Year 2 PV (M)384.07391.91399.83
Year 3 PV (M)442.66456.29470.19
Year 4 PV (M)490.29510.52531.36
Year 5 PV (M)528.28555.66584.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,233.8817,075.2217,951.08
Equity Value (M)18,392.2619,305.8420,256.05
Shares Outstanding (M)18.0418.0418.04
Fair Value$1,019.47$1,070.11$1,122.78
Upside / Downside-8.98%-4.45%0.25%

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