Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CASwell Inc. (6416.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.71 - $72.36$57.15
Multi-Stage$85.20 - $93.53$89.29
Blended Fair Value$73.22
Current Price$89.80
Upside-18.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%5.52%2.803.601.993.632.773.213.274.093.762.45
YoY Growth---22.22%80.39%-45.11%31.07%-13.79%-1.71%-20.00%8.70%53.33%50.00%
Dividend Yield--2.91%2.79%1.75%3.95%1.94%2.76%3.42%2.73%3.13%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)304.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.8638.0422.82
Cash Retained (M)98.9398.9398.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.86-38.04-22.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.0760.8976.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.4473.4473.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.831.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.802.802.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.831.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.313.633.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-0.52%0.48%1.48%
Fair Value$44.71$57.15$72.36
Upside / Downside-50.21%-36.36%-19.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)304.31305.75307.21308.67310.14311.62320.96
Payout Ratio67.49%71.99%76.49%81.00%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.38220.12235.00250.01265.16280.45296.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-0.52%0.48%1.48%
Year 1 PV (M)203.95206.01208.06
Year 2 PV (M)201.75205.83209.95
Year 3 PV (M)198.88204.94211.12
Year 4 PV (M)195.45203.42211.64
Year 5 PV (M)191.54201.36211.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,265.455,535.485,816.49
Equity Value (M)6,257.026,557.046,868.83
Shares Outstanding (M)73.4473.4473.44
Fair Value$85.20$89.29$93.53
Upside / Downside-5.12%-0.57%4.16%

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