Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Flariant Co., Ltd. (605566.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.26 - $1.75$1.51
Multi-Stage$2.23 - $2.46$2.34
Blended Fair Value$1.93
Current Price$27.20
Upside-92.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-41.01%0.00%0.120.050.740.050.091.730.790.530.000.00
YoY Growth--147.46%-93.29%1,441.06%-45.36%-94.90%117.97%49.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.28%3.22%0.20%0.22%4.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.123.832.30
Cash Retained (M)27.8227.8227.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.12-3.83-2.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.7023.9925.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)134.74134.74134.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-4.62%-3.62%-2.62%
Fair Value$1.26$1.51$1.75
Upside / Downside-95.35%-94.46%-93.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.6129.5028.4327.4026.4125.4526.22
Payout Ratio9.13%25.31%41.48%57.65%73.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.807.4711.7915.8019.5022.9124.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-4.62%-3.62%-2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)6.776.846.92
Year 2 PV (M)9.719.9110.12
Year 3 PV (M)11.8012.1712.56
Year 4 PV (M)13.2113.7714.35
Year 5 PV (M)14.0814.8315.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)245.08258.20271.88
Equity Value (M)300.65315.74331.44
Shares Outstanding (M)134.74134.74134.74
Fair Value$2.23$2.34$2.46
Upside / Downside-91.80%-91.38%-90.96%

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