Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leedarson IoT Technology Inc. (605365.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.56 - $11.19$8.57
Multi-Stage$11.96 - $13.12$12.53
Blended Fair Value$10.55
Current Price$15.14
Upside-30.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS12.83%0.00%0.330.300.130.010.090.180.070.030.000.00
YoY Growth--8.95%129.02%1,885.28%-92.26%-52.29%147.44%111.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.64%0.73%0.04%0.35%0.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)266.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.2633.2919.97
Cash Retained (M)48.1748.1748.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.26-33.29-19.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.0914.8828.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.87501.87501.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$6.56$8.57$11.19
Upside / Downside-56.67%-43.40%-26.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)266.30269.48272.69275.94279.23282.56291.04
Payout Ratio81.91%83.53%85.15%86.76%88.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.13225.09232.19239.42246.79254.31269.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)208.92211.01213.09
Year 2 PV (M)200.02204.04208.09
Year 3 PV (M)191.44197.23203.13
Year 4 PV (M)183.16190.58198.22
Year 5 PV (M)175.17184.09193.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,045.385,302.245,569.46
Equity Value (M)6,004.106,289.196,585.37
Shares Outstanding (M)501.87501.87501.87
Fair Value$11.96$12.53$13.12
Upside / Downside-20.98%-17.23%-13.33%

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