Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Xinzhonggang Thermal Power Co., Ltd. (605162.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.36 - $5.19$4.21
Multi-Stage$7.60 - $8.36$7.97
Blended Fair Value$6.09
Current Price$8.77
Upside-30.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.55%0.00%0.180.150.350.020.220.200.050.210.200.00
YoY Growth--18.95%-56.79%1,803.39%-91.46%10.66%303.27%-76.32%5.08%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.39%1.92%4.08%0.18%2.48%2.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7618.6011.16
Cash Retained (M)74.0274.0274.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.76-18.60-11.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.2655.4262.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)408.40408.40408.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.36$4.21$5.19
Upside / Downside-61.65%-51.98%-40.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.79147.30145.83144.37142.93141.50145.74
Payout Ratio50.25%58.20%66.15%74.10%82.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.7785.7396.47106.98117.27127.35134.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)79.6980.5181.32
Year 2 PV (M)83.3585.0686.79
Year 3 PV (M)85.9288.5891.29
Year 4 PV (M)87.5591.1894.92
Year 5 PV (M)88.3792.9897.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,677.932,817.372,962.57
Equity Value (M)3,102.823,255.683,414.66
Shares Outstanding (M)408.40408.40408.40
Fair Value$7.60$7.97$8.36
Upside / Downside-13.37%-9.10%-4.66%

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