Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tongqinglou Catering Co., Ltd. (605108.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.47 - $36.00$20.98
Multi-Stage$4.25 - $4.65$4.44
Blended Fair Value$12.71
Current Price$19.94
Upside-36.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS424.60%29.73%0.460.090.280.080.000.000.000.010.380.07
YoY Growth--442.18%-69.51%264.00%2,039.04%2,986.62%-96.51%-70.18%-97.06%410.24%117.21%
Dividend Yield--2.29%0.28%0.79%0.46%0.02%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.385.863.52
Cash Retained (M)32.7232.7232.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.38-5.86-3.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.3426.8629.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.00259.00259.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.47$20.98$36.00
Upside / Downside-57.53%5.20%80.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.8949.9353.1856.6460.3264.2466.16
Payout Ratio30.22%42.17%54.13%66.09%78.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1721.0628.7937.4347.0757.8161.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19.4419.6319.81
Year 2 PV (M)24.5325.0025.47
Year 3 PV (M)29.4530.2931.16
Year 4 PV (M)34.1935.5136.86
Year 5 PV (M)38.7740.6442.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)953.48999.531,047.35
Equity Value (M)1,099.861,150.601,203.23
Shares Outstanding (M)259.00259.00259.00
Fair Value$4.25$4.44$4.65
Upside / Downside-78.70%-77.72%-76.70%

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