Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co., Ltd. (605020.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.42 - $260.52$244.14
Multi-Stage$39.89 - $43.69$41.76
Blended Fair Value$142.95
Current Price$28.38
Upside403.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS85.54%0.00%0.290.270.230.030.040.010.060.040.000.00
YoY Growth--5.45%16.57%633.33%-20.46%206.67%-77.76%50.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.26%0.92%0.69%0.18%0.56%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)574.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)160.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.8271.7643.06
Cash Retained (M)413.14413.14413.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.82-71.76-43.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.32341.38370.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)438.27438.27438.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.780.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.780.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$129.42$244.14$260.52
Upside / Downside356.02%760.27%817.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)574.12611.44651.18693.51738.59786.59810.19
Payout Ratio28.04%40.43%52.82%65.22%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)160.97247.21343.97452.27573.20707.93749.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)230.26232.44234.62
Year 2 PV (M)298.42304.10309.84
Year 3 PV (M)365.46375.96386.65
Year 4 PV (M)431.42448.01465.07
Year 5 PV (M)496.29520.26545.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,662.7916,419.3117,204.78
Equity Value (M)17,484.6318,300.0719,146.10
Shares Outstanding (M)438.27438.27438.27
Fair Value$39.89$41.76$43.69
Upside / Downside40.57%47.13%53.93%

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