Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co.,Ltd (603810.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.55 - $0.72$0.64
Multi-Stage$1.33 - $1.48$1.41
Blended Fair Value$1.02
Current Price$17.28
Upside-94.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.86%-15.34%0.040.070.170.330.060.240.180.090.070.09
YoY Growth---53.03%-54.71%-50.49%461.22%-75.14%29.49%110.17%19.64%-16.69%-52.54%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.53%1.04%2.30%0.30%1.72%0.85%0.34%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.703.562.14
Cash Retained (M)19.0619.0619.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.70-3.56-2.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.3615.5016.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)176.04176.04176.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-12.55%-11.55%-10.55%
Fair Value$0.55$0.64$0.72
Upside / Downside-96.82%-96.31%-95.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.5025.2022.2919.7217.4415.4315.89
Payout Ratio33.11%44.49%55.87%67.25%78.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.4411.2112.4513.2613.7113.8814.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-12.55%-11.55%-10.55%
Year 1 PV (M)10.2610.3810.49
Year 2 PV (M)10.4210.6610.91
Year 3 PV (M)10.1510.5010.86
Year 4 PV (M)9.6010.0510.51
Year 5 PV (M)8.909.429.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)185.66196.53207.89
Equity Value (M)235.00247.54260.63
Shares Outstanding (M)176.04176.04176.04
Fair Value$1.33$1.41$1.48
Upside / Downside-92.27%-91.86%-91.43%

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