Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiajiayue Group Co., Ltd. (603708.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.03 - $46.79$27.42
Multi-Stage$7.41 - $8.11$7.75
Blended Fair Value$17.59
Current Price$10.24
Upside71.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.64%6.51%0.330.120.030.460.500.420.300.260.110.27
YoY Growth--164.65%385.16%-94.45%-7.09%19.01%37.31%17.82%130.77%-59.38%57.09%
Dividend Yield--3.35%1.19%0.19%3.60%2.39%1.29%1.61%1.61%0.71%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)149.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.9418.7111.23
Cash Retained (M)63.1363.1363.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.94-18.71-11.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1944.4251.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)629.53629.53629.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Fair Value$11.03$27.42$46.79
Upside / Downside7.74%167.74%356.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)149.68157.73166.21175.16184.58194.51200.35
Payout Ratio57.83%64.26%70.70%77.13%83.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.55101.36117.51135.10154.25175.06185.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Year 1 PV (M)94.5595.4696.36
Year 2 PV (M)102.26104.23106.21
Year 3 PV (M)109.67112.86116.10
Year 4 PV (M)116.81121.35126.02
Year 5 PV (M)123.67129.71135.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,117.124,318.154,526.96
Equity Value (M)4,664.084,881.755,107.64
Shares Outstanding (M)629.53629.53629.53
Fair Value$7.41$7.75$8.11
Upside / Downside-27.65%-24.27%-20.77%

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