DDM Analysis: 603657.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.56 - $20.59	$19.30
Multi-Stage	$2.97 - $3.25	$3.11
Blended Fair Value	$11.20
Current Price	$38.18
Upside	-70.66%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-23.49%	23.35%	0.15	0.32	0.33	0.52	0.34	0.56	0.02	0.02	1.15	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-54.21%	-3.04%	-37.00%	51.72%	-38.24%	3,597.23%	-27.42%	-98.19%	4,227.30%	48.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.87%	2.42%	1.96%	2.90%	1.76%	3.49%	0.06%	0.11%	6.05%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.89	1.80	1.08
Cash Retained (M)	4.00	4.00	4.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.89	-1.80	-1.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.12	2.20	2.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	139.36	139.36	139.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	6.66%	6.66%	6.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.56	$19.30	$20.59
Upside / Downside	-80.20%	-49.45%	-46.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14.43	15.37	16.37	17.43	18.56	19.77	20.36
Payout Ratio	72.25%	75.80%	79.35%	82.90%	86.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.43	11.65	12.99	14.45	16.05	17.79	18.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.66%	6.66%	6.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.82	10.92	11.03
Year 2 PV (M)	11.20	11.42	11.63
Year 3 PV (M)	11.58	11.91	12.25
Year 4 PV (M)	11.94	12.40	12.88
Year 5 PV (M)	12.30	12.89	13.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	356.13	373.33	391.19
Equity Value (M)	413.98	432.88	452.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	139.36	139.36	139.36
Fair Value	$2.97	$3.11	$3.25
Upside / Downside	-92.22%	-91.86%	-91.50%

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Jinhua Chunguang Technology Co.,Ltd (603657.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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