Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd. (603648.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.88 - $9.36$6.67
Multi-Stage$4.17 - $4.56$4.36
Blended Fair Value$5.52
Current Price$10.90
Upside-49.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.26%6.34%0.350.350.300.180.180.150.150.280.150.32
YoY Growth--0.81%16.70%63.84%0.00%20.00%0.00%-44.70%88.88%-54.19%67.10%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.67%3.31%2.00%2.35%1.77%1.15%1.54%1.38%3.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.9413.718.23
Cash Retained (M)107.59107.59107.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.94-13.71-8.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.6593.8799.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)362.44362.44362.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.260.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.260.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate4.34%5.34%6.34%
Fair Value$4.88$6.67$9.36
Upside / Downside-55.27%-38.79%-14.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.70115.56121.73128.23135.08142.30146.57
Payout Ratio1.93%19.54%37.16%54.77%72.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.1222.5845.2370.2497.78128.07135.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate4.34%5.34%6.34%
Year 1 PV (M)20.4320.6220.82
Year 2 PV (M)37.0037.7138.43
Year 3 PV (M)51.9553.4655.00
Year 4 PV (M)65.4167.9670.58
Year 5 PV (M)77.4881.2785.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,257.611,319.041,382.84
Equity Value (M)1,509.881,580.061,652.87
Shares Outstanding (M)362.44362.44362.44
Fair Value$4.17$4.36$4.56
Upside / Downside-61.78%-60.00%-58.16%

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