Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd. (603601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.77 - $1.19$0.96
Multi-Stage$0.98 - $1.07$1.03
Blended Fair Value$1.00
Current Price$5.01
Upside-80.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.14%29.00%0.090.060.080.150.080.090.080.010.090.01
YoY Growth--51.56%-23.37%-47.64%86.37%-12.39%21.94%985.80%-92.10%505.03%103.19%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.73%1.51%2.31%1.01%1.22%1.45%0.13%1.34%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2310.146.08
Cash Retained (M)43.2643.2643.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.23-10.14-6.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.0333.1237.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.791,023.791,023.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Fair Value$0.77$0.96$1.19
Upside / Downside-84.67%-80.77%-76.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.1383.0384.9786.9688.9991.0893.81
Payout Ratio46.68%55.34%64.01%72.67%81.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.8745.9554.3963.2072.3881.9786.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Year 1 PV (M)41.4841.8942.30
Year 2 PV (M)44.3145.1946.08
Year 3 PV (M)46.4847.8749.28
Year 4 PV (M)48.0549.9851.96
Year 5 PV (M)49.1251.5954.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)775.63814.66855.25
Equity Value (M)1,005.071,051.171,099.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.791,023.791,023.79
Fair Value$0.98$1.03$1.07
Upside / Downside-80.40%-79.51%-78.57%

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