Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd. (603589.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.58 - $38.06$29.35
Multi-Stage$22.48 - $24.63$23.54
Blended Fair Value$26.44
Current Price$33.39
Upside-20.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.02%23.61%1.511.511.501.201.511.510.750.450.350.18
YoY Growth---0.10%0.53%25.00%-20.42%0.00%100.00%66.67%28.57%94.44%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.19%3.61%2.13%2.22%2.43%3.64%1.32%1.05%1.01%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,086.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,086.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)217.33135.8381.50
Cash Retained (M)1,086.631,086.631,086.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-217.33-135.83-81.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)869.30950.801,005.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)597.17597.17597.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.461.591.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.461.591.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.591.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate3.18%4.18%5.18%
Fair Value$22.58$29.35$38.06
Upside / Downside-32.37%-12.10%13.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,086.651,132.101,179.441,228.761,280.151,333.681,373.69
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.02203.80424.61663.54921.711,200.311,270.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate3.18%4.18%5.18%
Year 1 PV (M)183.77185.55187.33
Year 2 PV (M)345.26351.98358.77
Year 3 PV (M)486.51500.80515.36
Year 4 PV (M)609.39633.36658.03
Year 5 PV (M)715.61750.96787.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,085.6811,633.3912,202.53
Equity Value (M)13,426.2214,056.0414,709.73
Shares Outstanding (M)597.17597.17597.17
Fair Value$22.48$23.54$24.63
Upside / Downside-32.67%-29.51%-26.23%

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