Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Tiantai Xianghe Industrial Co.,Ltd. (603500.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.22 - $8.61$6.73
Multi-Stage$5.53 - $6.06$5.79
Blended Fair Value$6.26
Current Price$11.19
Upside-44.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.34%4.68%0.110.100.110.100.160.110.080.080.210.19
YoY Growth--2.72%-4.63%6.72%-37.31%50.00%36.96%-5.91%-60.98%11.61%186.30%
Dividend Yield--1.41%1.36%1.17%1.16%2.58%1.57%1.06%1.00%3.09%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.2818.3010.98
Cash Retained (M)142.43142.43142.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.28-18.30-10.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.15124.13131.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)328.70328.70328.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate2.68%3.68%4.68%
Fair Value$5.22$6.73$8.61
Upside / Downside-53.34%-39.89%-23.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.42151.80157.39163.18169.19175.41180.67
Payout Ratio2.72%20.18%37.63%55.09%72.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.9830.6359.2389.89122.73157.87167.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate2.68%3.68%4.68%
Year 1 PV (M)27.6527.9228.19
Year 2 PV (M)48.2849.2350.18
Year 3 PV (M)66.1768.1270.11
Year 4 PV (M)81.5684.7988.11
Year 5 PV (M)94.7399.43104.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,499.571,574.021,651.41
Equity Value (M)1,817.961,903.511,992.32
Shares Outstanding (M)328.70328.70328.70
Fair Value$5.53$5.79$6.06
Upside / Downside-50.57%-48.25%-45.83%

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