Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Bafang Electric (Suzhou) Co.,Ltd. (603489.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.17 - $3.08$2.62
Multi-Stage$3.29 - $3.61$3.45
Blended Fair Value$3.03
Current Price$26.08
Upside-88.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.18%0.00%0.701.001.011.010.500.170.190.310.030.01
YoY Growth---30.00%-0.44%-0.21%100.80%200.00%-11.60%-39.46%834.38%300.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.59%3.60%1.86%1.13%0.51%0.50%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.909.945.96
Cash Retained (M)56.0356.0356.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.90-9.94-5.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1346.0950.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)239.13239.13239.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.17$2.62$3.08
Upside / Downside-91.67%-89.96%-88.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.4978.6977.9177.1376.3675.5977.86
Payout Ratio29.52%41.61%53.71%65.81%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4632.7541.8450.7559.4868.0372.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)29.4729.7730.07
Year 2 PV (M)33.8934.5835.29
Year 3 PV (M)36.9938.1439.31
Year 4 PV (M)39.0240.6442.30
Year 5 PV (M)40.1642.2544.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)607.81639.47672.42
Equity Value (M)787.35824.85863.82
Shares Outstanding (M)239.13239.13239.13
Fair Value$3.29$3.45$3.61
Upside / Downside-87.38%-86.77%-86.15%

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