Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co., Ltd. (603308.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.49 - $103.10$96.61
Multi-Stage$30.92 - $33.94$32.40
Blended Fair Value$64.51
Current Price$32.52
Upside98.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.54%2.91%0.340.180.100.090.060.030.030.030.040.03
YoY Growth--89.10%73.53%15.16%53.09%78.67%21.43%5.00%-33.33%20.48%-87.42%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.23%0.52%0.64%0.31%0.34%0.33%0.24%0.29%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)353.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.7044.1926.51
Cash Retained (M)162.63162.63162.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.70-44.19-26.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.93118.44136.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)673.64673.64673.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate4.69%4.69%4.69%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Fair Value$87.49$96.61$103.10
Upside / Downside169.04%197.08%217.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)353.48371.89391.26411.63433.06455.61469.28
Payout Ratio53.99%61.19%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190.86227.58267.60311.18358.57410.05434.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.69%4.69%4.69%
Growth Rate4.21%5.21%6.21%
Year 1 PV (M)215.32217.39219.46
Year 2 PV (M)239.56244.18248.84
Year 3 PV (M)263.57271.23279.04
Year 4 PV (M)287.36298.55310.06
Year 5 PV (M)310.92326.13341.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,515.2120,469.7221,461.22
Equity Value (M)20,831.9421,827.1922,860.54
Shares Outstanding (M)673.64673.64673.64
Fair Value$30.92$32.40$33.94
Upside / Downside-4.91%-0.36%4.35%

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