DDM Analysis: 603306.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.14 - $57.49	$31.48
Multi-Stage	$13.35 - $14.59	$13.96
Blended Fair Value	$22.72
Current Price	$56.06
Upside	-59.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-15.76%	30.01%	0.21	0.20	0.12	0.14	0.44	0.49	0.38	0.48	0.23	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	6.83%	68.44%	-16.52%	-68.63%	-10.00%	29.88%	-21.30%	109.92%	214.42%	382.02%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.57%	0.93%	0.31%	0.45%	1.95%	3.61%	2.28%	2.66%	0.84%	0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	253.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	219.18

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	50.76	31.72	19.03
Cash Retained (M)	219.18	219.18	219.18
(-) Cash Required (M)	-50.76	-31.72	-19.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	168.42	187.46	200.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	312.37	312.37	312.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.54	0.60	0.64
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.54	0.60	0.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.65	0.71	0.75
WACC / Discount Rate	8.91%	8.91%	8.91%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.14	$31.48	$57.49
Upside / Downside	-64.08%	-43.85%	2.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	253.79	270.29	287.86	306.57	326.50	347.72	358.15
Payout Ratio	13.64%	28.91%	44.18%	59.45%	74.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.61	78.14	127.18	182.27	243.98	312.95	331.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.91%	8.91%	8.91%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	71.08	71.75	72.42
Year 2 PV (M)	105.23	107.23	109.26
Year 3 PV (M)	137.18	141.11	145.13
Year 4 PV (M)	167.02	173.45	180.05
Year 5 PV (M)	194.87	204.28	214.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,493.33	3,662.06	3,837.24
Equity Value (M)	4,168.70	4,359.88	4,558.15
Shares Outstanding (M)	312.37	312.37	312.37
Fair Value	$13.35	$13.96	$14.59
Upside / Downside	-76.19%	-75.10%	-73.97%

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HMT (Xiamen) New Technical Materials Co., Ltd (603306.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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