Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang E-P Equipment Co Ltd (603194.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.91 - $32.21$26.17
Multi-Stage$46.05 - $50.73$48.35
Blended Fair Value$37.26
Current Price$45.04
Upside-17.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)875.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)256.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)619.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)175.06109.4165.65
Cash Retained (M)619.10619.10619.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-175.06-109.41-65.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.04509.69553.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.33384.33384.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.331.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.331.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.821.992.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.91$26.17$32.21
Upside / Downside-53.58%-41.90%-28.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)875.28866.53857.86849.28840.79832.38857.35
Payout Ratio29.27%41.41%53.56%65.71%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)256.18358.87459.48558.04654.59749.14793.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)333.44336.84340.25
Year 2 PV (M)396.67404.81413.02
Year 3 PV (M)447.62461.46475.59
Year 4 PV (M)487.85508.07528.91
Year 5 PV (M)518.76545.78573.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,515.9016,323.8517,165.11
Equity Value (M)17,700.2518,580.8119,496.79
Shares Outstanding (M)384.33384.33384.33
Fair Value$46.05$48.35$50.73
Upside / Downside2.25%7.34%12.63%

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