Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co., Ltd. (603160.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.90 - $9.12$8.05
Multi-Stage$13.58 - $15.01$14.28
Blended Fair Value$11.17
Current Price$82.61
Upside-86.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.84%1.57%0.210.040.220.440.790.490.590.380.220.21
YoY Growth--418.77%-81.42%-51.08%-43.94%59.75%-16.69%53.99%78.03%1.01%20.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.07%0.38%0.62%0.70%0.19%0.54%0.42%0.23%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)832.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)186.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)645.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.44104.0262.41
Cash Retained (M)645.29645.29645.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.44-104.02-62.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)478.85541.27582.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)463.43463.43463.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.171.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.171.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate-9.54%-8.54%-7.54%
Fair Value$6.90$8.05$9.12
Upside / Downside-91.65%-90.25%-88.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)832.20761.16696.18636.75582.39532.68548.66
Payout Ratio22.46%35.97%49.48%62.98%76.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)186.90273.77344.44401.05445.48479.41507.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.31%9.31%9.31%
Growth Rate-9.54%-8.54%-7.54%
Year 1 PV (M)247.71250.45253.19
Year 2 PV (M)282.00288.27294.60
Year 3 PV (M)297.10307.06317.24
Year 4 PV (M)298.61312.03325.90
Year 5 PV (M)290.76307.19324.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,878.235,153.885,441.85
Equity Value (M)6,294.406,618.876,957.14
Shares Outstanding (M)463.43463.43463.43
Fair Value$13.58$14.28$15.01
Upside / Downside-83.56%-82.71%-81.83%

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