Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co.,Ltd (603111.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.30 - $18.48$11.99
Multi-Stage$5.85 - $6.40$6.12
Blended Fair Value$9.06
Current Price$7.98
Upside13.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.92%10.35%0.200.010.010.020.020.020.140.080.070.05
YoY Growth--3,725.45%-48.25%-46.81%-15.79%7.29%-85.25%67.85%25.00%33.33%-31.82%
Dividend Yield--2.93%0.09%0.22%0.37%0.42%0.30%2.65%0.75%0.46%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)363.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.7245.4527.27
Cash Retained (M)347.54347.54347.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.72-45.45-27.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)274.81302.08320.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)870.28870.28870.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.30$11.99$18.48
Upside / Downside4.03%50.23%131.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)363.62387.26412.43439.24467.79498.19513.14
Payout Ratio4.42%21.54%38.65%55.77%72.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0983.41159.42244.96340.95448.37474.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)75.2976.0076.72
Year 2 PV (M)129.89132.36134.86
Year 3 PV (M)180.14185.31190.58
Year 4 PV (M)226.32235.02243.97
Year 5 PV (M)268.64281.62295.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,214.564,418.124,629.48
Equity Value (M)5,094.835,328.445,570.70
Shares Outstanding (M)870.28870.28870.28
Fair Value$5.85$6.12$6.40
Upside / Downside-26.64%-23.27%-19.79%

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