Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Dafeng Industry Co., Ltd (603081.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.19 - $8.14$5.76
Multi-Stage$6.72 - $7.36$7.03
Blended Fair Value$6.40
Current Price$13.22
Upside-51.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.22%3.36%0.270.400.430.250.130.150.150.140.190.05
YoY Growth---32.25%-5.17%70.20%95.87%-16.92%2.88%7.32%-28.49%276.35%-73.68%
Dividend Yield--2.44%3.69%2.60%2.21%1.06%1.39%0.94%0.49%1.30%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8213.017.81
Cash Retained (M)7.697.697.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.82-13.01-7.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.13-5.32-0.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)396.04396.04396.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$4.19$5.76$8.14
Upside / Downside-68.32%-56.44%-38.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.08106.54109.05111.63114.26116.96120.47
Payout Ratio92.61%92.09%91.57%91.05%90.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.3998.1199.86101.63103.44105.27111.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)91.2792.1793.07
Year 2 PV (M)86.4188.1389.86
Year 3 PV (M)81.8184.2686.75
Year 4 PV (M)77.4580.5683.75
Year 5 PV (M)73.3377.0280.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,250.632,363.862,481.60
Equity Value (M)2,660.902,785.982,915.88
Shares Outstanding (M)396.04396.04396.04
Fair Value$6.72$7.03$7.36
Upside / Downside-49.18%-46.79%-44.31%

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