Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co.,Ltd. (603067.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$164.81 - $194.18$181.98
Multi-Stage$361.18 - $396.54$378.53
Blended Fair Value$280.25
Current Price$18.57
Upside1,409.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.66%0.00%0.230.260.230.150.090.070.060.050.020.00
YoY Growth---11.96%10.86%54.22%72.49%25.59%21.74%26.61%136.29%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.81%4.01%2.49%1.83%1.53%1.89%1.05%0.86%0.20%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)518.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.7164.8238.89
Cash Retained (M)357.35357.35357.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.71-64.82-38.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.64292.53318.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)531.11531.11531.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.550.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$164.81$181.98$194.18
Upside / Downside787.53%879.94%945.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)518.57552.27588.17626.40667.12710.48731.80
Payout Ratio31.09%42.87%54.65%66.44%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.22236.77321.46416.15521.81639.43676.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)290.23292.98295.73
Year 2 PV (M)483.01492.21501.50
Year 3 PV (M)766.50788.50810.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,178.111,223.411,270.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,769.661,855.131,943.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)187,337.94196,386.43205,781.23
Equity Value (M)191,825.44201,038.67210,603.27
Shares Outstanding (M)531.11531.11531.11
Fair Value$361.18$378.53$396.54
Upside / Downside1,844.97%1,938.39%2,035.37%

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