Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Techmation Co.,Ltd. (603015.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.75 - $23.27$21.81
Multi-Stage$13.24 - $14.54$13.88
Blended Fair Value$17.84
Current Price$11.86
Upside50.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.50%1.53%0.180.080.140.140.020.130.190.050.050.06
YoY Growth--121.19%-39.79%0.64%687.98%-87.03%-29.71%247.03%3.16%-4.27%-64.72%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.00%1.76%2.09%0.29%2.27%2.40%0.68%0.44%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.285.803.48
Cash Retained (M)15.6715.6715.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.28-5.80-3.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.399.8712.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.03393.03393.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate1.95%1.95%1.95%
Growth Rate4.50%5.50%6.50%
Fair Value$19.75$21.81$23.27
Upside / Downside66.51%83.87%96.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.4248.9851.6754.5157.5060.6662.48
Payout Ratio66.24%70.99%75.75%80.50%85.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7534.7739.1443.8849.0254.6057.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.95%1.95%1.95%
Growth Rate4.50%5.50%6.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.7834.1034.43
Year 2 PV (M)36.9437.6538.37
Year 3 PV (M)40.2441.4142.59
Year 4 PV (M)43.6845.3747.12
Year 5 PV (M)47.2649.5751.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,003.425,247.455,500.92
Equity Value (M)5,205.335,455.565,715.39
Shares Outstanding (M)393.03393.03393.03
Fair Value$13.24$13.88$14.54
Upside / Downside11.67%17.04%22.61%

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