Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Wafer Level CSP Co., Ltd. (603005.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.86 - $20.96$14.01
Multi-Stage$7.03 - $7.69$7.35
Blended Fair Value$10.68
Current Price$32.35
Upside-66.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.24%0.19%0.050.080.180.120.040.030.030.020.040.06
YoY Growth---36.83%-52.93%46.18%247.21%40.64%-15.25%66.67%-53.64%-38.89%20.00%
Dividend Yield--0.17%0.46%0.72%0.53%0.11%0.07%0.36%0.16%0.31%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)340.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.4142.7625.65
Cash Retained (M)340.25340.25340.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.41-42.76-25.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)271.84297.50314.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)652.15652.15652.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.86$14.01$20.96
Upside / Downside-69.52%-56.69%-35.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.05364.28387.96413.17440.03468.63482.69
Payout Ratio0.52%18.42%36.31%54.21%72.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.7967.10140.89223.98317.28421.77446.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.4361.0061.58
Year 2 PV (M)114.28116.46118.66
Year 3 PV (M)163.63168.33173.12
Year 4 PV (M)208.77216.80225.06
Year 5 PV (M)249.95262.02274.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,786.053,968.924,158.79
Equity Value (M)4,583.124,793.535,011.75
Shares Outstanding (M)652.15652.15652.15
Fair Value$7.03$7.35$7.69
Upside / Downside-78.28%-77.28%-76.24%

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