Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. (601968.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.38 - $30.14$19.28
Multi-Stage$3.62 - $3.96$3.79
Blended Fair Value$11.53
Current Price$4.93
Upside133.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.19%5.71%0.150.140.130.080.070.060.070.080.080.23
YoY Growth--8.38%8.11%64.54%13.47%14.63%-19.81%-7.05%-1.21%-64.93%168.98%
Dividend Yield--3.19%2.63%1.75%1.10%0.86%1.35%1.43%1.66%0.90%2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.2323.9014.34
Cash Retained (M)132.98132.98132.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.23-23.90-14.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.74109.08118.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,261.431,261.431,261.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.38$19.28$30.14
Upside / Downside49.74%290.98%511.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191.17203.59216.83230.92245.93261.92269.77
Payout Ratio30.44%42.35%54.26%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.1986.23117.66152.81192.04235.73249.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)79.6680.4181.17
Year 2 PV (M)100.41102.32104.25
Year 3 PV (M)120.47123.93127.46
Year 4 PV (M)139.86145.24150.77
Year 5 PV (M)158.59166.25174.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,966.504,158.084,357.00
Equity Value (M)4,565.504,776.254,994.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,261.431,261.431,261.43
Fair Value$3.62$3.79$3.96
Upside / Downside-26.59%-23.20%-19.68%

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