Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Publishing & Media Holdings Co., Ltd. (601949.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.18 - $7.44$5.56
Multi-Stage$3.85 - $4.22$4.03
Blended Fair Value$4.79
Current Price$6.74
Upside-28.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.44%13.48%0.150.110.130.120.120.100.090.050.070.03
YoY Growth--45.74%-17.08%4.34%5.73%17.76%12.92%79.35%-30.01%152.45%-36.98%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.29%2.08%2.41%1.50%1.88%1.46%0.74%1.43%0.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)569.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)552.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.8271.1442.68
Cash Retained (M)552.01552.01552.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.82-71.14-42.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)438.18480.87509.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,904.641,904.641,904.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Fair Value$4.18$5.56$7.44
Upside / Downside-37.94%-17.58%10.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)569.11596.70625.63655.96687.76721.11742.74
Payout Ratio3.01%20.40%37.80%55.20%72.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.10121.75236.51362.11499.32649.00687.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)109.85110.90111.96
Year 2 PV (M)192.51196.24200.00
Year 3 PV (M)265.92273.68281.58
Year 4 PV (M)330.83343.76357.06
Year 5 PV (M)387.94406.98426.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,054.956,352.156,660.91
Equity Value (M)7,342.007,683.718,038.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,904.641,904.641,904.64
Fair Value$3.85$4.03$4.22
Upside / Downside-42.81%-40.15%-37.38%

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