Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Founder Securities Co., Ltd. (601901.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.66 - $99.23$92.99
Multi-Stage$13.13 - $14.37$13.74
Blended Fair Value$53.37
Current Price$8.14
Upside555.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.66%25.33%0.220.110.110.110.150.310.200.270.390.07
YoY Growth--95.94%-0.21%4.31%-28.05%-51.70%51.71%-25.75%-29.74%428.30%222.74%
Dividend Yield--2.79%1.35%1.59%1.58%1.70%4.27%2.61%4.39%4.78%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,041.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,425.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,615.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)808.25505.16303.10
Cash Retained (M)2,615.452,615.452,615.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-808.25-505.16-303.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,807.202,110.302,312.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,099.628,099.628,099.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.66$92.99$99.23
Upside / Downside276.71%1,042.39%1,119.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,041.274,303.954,583.714,881.655,198.955,536.895,702.99
Payout Ratio35.28%46.23%57.17%68.11%79.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,425.811,989.502,620.453,325.014,110.104,983.205,275.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,844.071,861.551,879.03
Year 2 PV (M)2,251.352,294.232,337.52
Year 3 PV (M)2,647.862,723.872,801.32
Year 4 PV (M)3,033.803,150.473,270.48
Year 5 PV (M)3,409.393,574.063,745.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,182.3397,683.07102,356.07
Equity Value (M)106,368.80111,287.26116,389.46
Shares Outstanding (M)8,099.628,099.628,099.62
Fair Value$13.13$13.74$14.37
Upside / Downside61.33%68.79%76.53%

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