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Definitive Analysis

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Zheshang Securities Co., Ltd. (601878.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.49 - $111.60$104.58
Multi-Stage$14.77 - $16.16$15.45
Blended Fair Value$60.02
Current Price$11.53
Upside420.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.97%37.31%0.290.260.310.310.240.240.210.120.180.03
YoY Growth--13.01%-16.08%-2.18%29.43%1.18%12.31%80.15%-32.51%411.39%180.89%
Dividend Yield--2.56%2.33%3.05%2.99%1.89%2.39%1.82%0.93%1.44%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,558.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)900.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)511.79319.87191.92
Cash Retained (M)1,658.751,658.751,658.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-511.79-319.87-191.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,146.961,338.891,466.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,560.264,560.264,560.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.49$104.58$111.60
Upside / Downside199.11%807.05%867.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,558.952,725.282,902.433,091.093,292.013,505.993,611.17
Payout Ratio35.18%46.14%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)900.201,257.521,657.492,104.142,601.863,155.393,340.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,165.601,176.651,187.69
Year 2 PV (M)1,424.031,451.151,478.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,675.621,723.721,772.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,920.521,994.382,070.34
Year 5 PV (M)2,158.842,263.122,371.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,003.5761,853.4664,812.43
Equity Value (M)67,348.1870,462.4873,693.12
Shares Outstanding (M)4,560.264,560.264,560.26
Fair Value$14.77$15.45$16.16
Upside / Downside28.09%34.01%40.15%

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